¡¡¡Ready to go to COP27 in just two weeks ¡¡¡.
The UN Emissions Gap Report 2022 come less than two weeks before the climate summit in Egypt, where global negotiators will be under pressure to make progress on how to reduce emissions. As climate impacts intensify, the Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window – Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies finds that the world is still falling short of the Paris climate goals, with no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place.
The World is on track for up to 2.6C temperature rise by 2100. Only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid an accelerating climate disaster.
The Closing Window. Global GHG emissions under different scenarios and the emissions gap in 2030 (median estimate and tenth to ninetieth percentile range).
The report looks at how to deliver this transformation, through action in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems.
- Despite a call for strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2030, progress since COP26 in Glasgow has been woefully inadequate. Most G20 members have just started implementing efforts to meet their new targets; collectively, the G20 is expected to fall short of its 2030 promises without strengthened action.
- This lack of progress leaves the world on a path towards a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goal of well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. Unconditional NDCs are estimated to give a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6°C by the end of the century. For conditional NDCs, this goes down to 2.4°C. Policies currently in place, without further strengthening, suggest a 2.8°C hike.
- To get on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gases by unprecedented levels over the next eight years. Unconditional and conditional NDCs are estimated to reduce global emissions in 2030 by 5% and 10% respectively, compared with emissions based on policies currently in place. To get on a least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C, these percentages must reach 30% and 45% respectively.
- Such massive cuts require a large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation across the globe. Actions are required in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems that would back these changes.
- Food systems, which account for one third of all emissions, can be reformed to deliver rapid and lasting cuts. Focus areas for food systems include demand-side dietary changes (including tackling food waste), protection of natural ecosystems, improvements in food production at the farm level and decarbonization of food supply chains.
- The financial system must overcome internal and external constraints to become a critical enabler of transformation across all sectors. A global transformation to a low-carbon economy is expected to require investments of at least USD 4-6 trillion a year. This is a relatively small (1.5%-2%) share of total financial assets managed, but significant (20%-28%) in terms of additional annual resources needed.
The Window is Closing. As the Emissions Gap Report 2022 suggests, inadequate progress on climate action makes urgent transformation only option.
If you are a member of the Board of Directors or top management, you should be interested to understand how this transformation may affect your sector or your company.
Mariluz Castilla Porquet
Sustainability Senior & Board Advisor
Blog : www.mariluzcastilla.com